Changing the Primaries schedule

So it looks as if the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling is meeting this weekend to decide the calendar of the Democratic Party Primaries. Ten states plus the District of Columbia have applied for the openings: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina and West Virginia. (Story here).

The primaries are where each state decides which nominee to support. You may know that Iowa and New Hampshire are always the first two states to have primaries and often those two states decide who the democratic nominee will be. That’s how John Kerry came from nowhere to take the lead, by winning third in Iowa and then winning big in New Hampshire. Many nominees can’t afford to keep campaigning if they haven’t placed in the top 3 in those two states.

What’s the problem with this system you may ask? Well for starters, it’s not fair. Iowa’s white population is 95 percent, New Hampshire’s is 96.2 percent, according to the latest Census numbers (source). Blacks and Hispanics are core constituencies for the Democrats. Yet, when it comes to states that have a sizable portion of non-whites, the primary voting is just a formality, for NH and Iowa have already selected the nominee that will run for president.

Take these stats for example: (source 1)

• with the exception of 1976; Iowa and New Hampshire have a long tradition of picking losers. The last Democrat to occupy the White House was Bill Clinton, and he lost the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. What does that tell you?

• Iowa and New Hampshire have 7 and 4 electoral votes respectively, and unless the general election is extremely close, losing Iowa and New Hampshire’s combined 11 electoral votes is not going to cause one to lose the White House.

By adding a southern and midwestern state into the early mix it gives the primary voting a little more variety and hopefully the presidential nominee will be a little more reflective of what the country actually wants. I would love to see Arkansas get an early primary.

Update: 7-22-06

It looks like they chose Nevada to go between Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina to go right after New Hampshire. (Story here)